Friday, August 25, 2006

Out Damned Spot?

Evidence continues to mount that the next solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is beginning. For the second time in a month, a backward sunspot has appeared. The first backward spot, sighted on July 31st, was tiny and fleeting. The latest, however, is big and sturdy, bipolar sunspot 905:











"Backward" means magnetically backward. Compared to how sunspots have been during the past 11-year solar cycle, the north and south magnetic poles of sunspot 905 are reversed. This is what happens when one solar cycle gives way to another--sunspots reverse polarity.

Sunspots are planet-sized magnets created by the sun's inner magnetic dynamo. Like all magnets in the Universe, sunspots have north (N) and south (S) magnetic poles. The sunspot of July 31st popped up at solar longitude 65 degrees W, latitude 13 degree S. Sunspots in that area are normally oriented N-S. The newcomer, however, was S-N, opposite the norm.

"We've been waiting for this," says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight in Huntsville, Alabama. "A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning."

Solar activity rises and falls in 11-year cycles, swinging back and forth between times of quiet and storminess. Right now the sun is quiet. "We're near the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked way back in 2001," explains Hathaway. The next cycle, Solar Cycle 24, should begin "any time now," returning the sun to a stormy state.

Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.

The onset of Solar Cycle 24 is big news, because the cycle is expected to be intense, but don't expect any big storms right away. Solar cycles take years to ramp up to full power. The next Solar Max is expected in 2010.

Most, if not all, of this information was lifted from SpaceWeather.com or links found there.

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